加国头条 i4cc.ca ｜【一年跌了21.4%？还有涨了15.1%？】墨尔本房市相差这么多？

墨尔本最外围的地区正在经受全市房价下跌的冲击，目前房价下跌已蔓延到城市的大部分地区。

在墨尔本房价出现20年来最大跌幅之际，专家们开始关注市场的底部。但鉴于许多预测将取决于澳大利亚央行是否会在联邦大选前降息，以及银行是否放松放贷标准，因此预测是谨慎的。

本周发布的Domain house price报告显示，在截至今年3月的一年中，跌幅最大的地区是位于费尔菲尔德东北部的内城区，那里的房价中值下滑21.4%，至1122,500澳元。

紧随其后的是南墨尔本(South Melbourne)，房价下跌21.1%，至120万澳元的中值。

坎特伯雷(Canterbury)和考菲尔德北部(Caulfield North)的房价均下跌20.9%，阿博茨福德(Abbotsford)和霍桑东部(Hawthorn East)的房价均下跌20.8%，这两处房产是房价下跌幅度最大的5个地区。

房价中值下降

平均5年

fairfield $1,122,500 -21.40% 29.70%

South Melbourne$1,200,000 -21.10% 37.80%

Canterbury$2,295,000-20.90%20.80%

Caulfield North$1,589,000-20.90%33.40%

Abbotsford$970,000-20.80%32.50%

Hawthorn East$1,832,500-20.80%90.80%

Hughesdale$1,065,000-20.50%50.00%

Kew$1,800,000-18.20%8.10%

North Melbourne$1,056,000-18.10%47.80%

Malvern$2,122,500-18.00%41.50%

Collingwood$907,500-17.60%37.00%

Blackburn$1,149,000-17.30%40.10%

Carnegie$1,190,000-16.60%48.40%

Flemington$880,000-16.20%26.20%

Ashwood$1,100,000-16.10%49.40%

Mont Albert North$1,235,500-16.00%30.10%

Chadstone$909,200-15.80%32.70%

Scoresby$752,750-15.10%46.20%

Malvern East$1,535,000-14.80%37.10%

Hampton East$1,132,750-14.20%47.10%

资料来源:域名房价报告- 2019年3月

Domain高级研究分析师Nicola Powell表示，墨尔本经济放缓的明确趋势已经开始显现，首先受到冲击的是较为昂贵的郊区。最新数据显示，市场正在降温。

鲍威尔博士说:“在过去一年里，任何房价中值超过90万澳元的地方，房价中值都出现了两位数的下跌。”“在这个价格区间，由于贷款条件趋紧，人们现在更难进入房地产市场。”

Buxton South Melbourne董事Peter Zervas称，由于预期卖家在房价降温后继续持有房产，导致库存不足，导致市中心被紧紧控制的郊区受到影响。

泽瓦斯表示，即便如此，今年的房地产销售情况仍好于去年下半年。

他说:“市场上仅有的几套尚未售出的房产与2019年的价格不符。”

大多数躲过经济衰退的郊区都位于墨尔本的外围，即城市的西部和北部。

位于墨尔本外北部的惠特莱西(Whittlesea)是蓬勃发展的首套房买家大本营，该地区房价中值涨幅最大，较去年上涨15.1%，至59.9万澳元。

在西方，Cairnlea的中位数增长11.4%，至78万澳元，增幅居第二位，其次是Brookfield(增长9.6%)和Gisborne(增长9.4%)。

同样位于墨尔本外北区的沃勒特(Wollert)和哈克尼斯(Harkness)的房价中值均上涨9.1%。

房价中值上升

郊区平均5年

Whittlesea $599,000 15.10% 57.60%

Cairnlea $780,000 11.40% 60.30%

Brookfield $487,750 9.60% 48.70%

Gisborne $760,000 9.40% 52.00%

Harkness $480,000 9.10% 54.30%

Wollert $600,000 9.10% 67.10%

Bacchus Marsh $500,000 8.70% 42.90%

Kurunjang $439,500 8.50% 51.70%

Eynesbury $555,000 7.50% 41.40%

Wallan $505,000 7.40% 44.30%

Officer $576,500 7.30% 53.70%

Cranbourne North $585,000 7.20% 58.10%

Burnside Heights $635,000 7.10% 47.30%

Tarneit $563,450 7.10% 52.30%

Beaconsfield $752,500 6.70% 47.50%

Lynbrook $640,000 6.60% 50.20%

Truganina $565,250 6.60% 59.90%

Belgrave $676,016 6.10% 59.10%

Taylors Hill $725,000 5.80% 48.70%

Wyndham Vale $480,000 5.50% 65.5%

资料来源:域名房价报告- 2019年3月

首次置业优惠措施帮助缓冲了房价中值下跌带来的影响，因为购房者希望以低于60万澳元的价格购房，以符合免征印花税的资格。

大卫•迪克森(David Dickson)和他的伴侣佩特拉•福尔兹(Petra Foulds)两周前搬进了库伦张省的一套三居室住宅，主要原因是墨尔本西部房价更便宜。

Kurunjang是涨幅最大的10个郊区之一，涨幅中值为8.5%，至439,500澳元。

迪克森是一名飞机工程师，而福尔兹是西机场韦斯特菲尔德(Westfield)的一名零售经理，他们家离两人工作的地方都很近。房子是一项长期投资，允许他们为未来做计划，包括组建家庭。

迪克森表示:“我们计划在未来10年至15年继续留在这里，甚至更长时间。”

鲍威尔博士表示，虽然房价保持在高位，但处于边缘的房价中值的良好涨势可能不会持续太久。

鲍威尔表示:“我认为，随着维多利亚州首次置业者的举措(印花税优惠)支撑了需求和增长，这些外部地区受到的影响会有所延迟，但随着时间的推移，这种影响将逐渐消失。”

“特别是由于收紧的贷款标准，为买房融资变得更加困难。”

已经有迹象表明，一些远郊区的房价出现下跌。

克莱德(Clyde)、克兰伯恩(Cranbourne)和基尔赛斯(Kilsyth)等位于英国东部外围、以购房者为主的郊区，房价中值在过去一年下降了0.9%至5.7%。

根据ABS的最新数据，在2018年至2019年期间，首次购房者的贷款承诺数量也开始降温，申请贷款的购房者减少了10%。

鲍威尔博士表示:“所有买方领域的住房贷款承诺普遍放缓，可能会继续产生影响。”

Inner city Melbourne suburb house prices decline but outer areas rise

Melbourne’s outermost suburbs are bucking the citywide house price downturn, which has now spread to most of the city.

此文章出于

<MELISSA HEAGNEY, Domian, May 3 2019>

Amid Melbourne prices taking their steepest tumble in two decades, experts have started to look towards the bottom of the market. But predictions are cautious given much will depend on whether the RBA will cut interest rates in the lead-up to the federal election and if banks loosen their lending criteria.
In the year to March, the suburb with the biggest decline was inner north-eastern Fairfield, where the median house price slipped 21.4 per cent to $1,122,500, the Domain House Price Report, released this week, shows.
It was closely followed by South Melbourne’s 21.1 per cent drop to a house price median of $1.2 million.
Canterbury and Caulfield North, both down 20.9 per cent, and Abbotsford and Hawthorn East, down by 20.8 per cent apiece, made up the top five suburbs to fall.
Top 20 house price median declines
Median YoY 5 years
Fairfield $1,122,500 -21.40% 29.70%
South Melbourne $1,200,000 -21.10% 37.80%
Canterbury $2,295,000 -20.90% 20.80%
Caulfield North $1,589,000 -20.90% 33.40%
Abbotsford $970,000 -20.80% 32.50%
Hawthorn East $1,832,500 -20.80% 90.80%
Hughesdale $1,065,000 -20.50% 50.00%
Kew $1,800,000 -18.20% 8.10%
North Melbourne $1,056,000 -18.10% 47.80%
Malvern $2,122,500 -18.00% 41.50%
Collingwood $907,500 -17.60% 37.00%
Blackburn $1,149,000 -17.30% 40.10%
Carnegie $1,190,000 -16.60% 48.40%
Flemington $880,000 -16.20% 26.20%
Ashwood $1,100,000 -16.10% 49.40%
Mont Albert North $1,235,500 -16.00% 30.10%
Chadstone $909,200 -15.80% 32.70%
Scoresby $752,750 -15.10% 46.20%
Malvern East $1,535,000 -14.80% 37.10%
Hampton East $1,132,750 -14.20% 47.10%
Source: Domain House Price Report – March 2019

Domain senior research analyst Nicola Powell said a definite trend for Melbourne’s slowdown had started to emerge with the pricier suburbs being hit first. The latest figures revealed the cooling market was moving outwards.
“Anything with a median over $900,000 has seen a double-digit median house price fall over the past year,” Dr Powell said. “At that price range it’s now much harder for people to get on the property ladder because of tighter lending conditions.”
Buxton South Melbourne director Peter Zervas said tightly held suburbs in the inner city were affected by a lack of stock as prospective vendors held on to their properties as prices cooled.
Even so, properties were selling better this year than the last half of last year, Mr Zervas said.
“The few properties sitting on the market that haven’t sold are not in line with 2019 prices,” he said.
Most of the suburbs that have escaped the downturn are on Melbourne’s outer fringe, in the west and north of the city.
The booming first-home buyer stronghold of Whittlesea, in Melbourne’s outer north, enjoyed the largest rise in house price median, up 15.1 per cent to $599,000 since last year.
In the west, Cairnlea at 11.4 per cent enjoyed the second-biggest rise in median to $780,000, followed by Brookfield (up by 9.6 per cent) and Gisborne (up 9.4 per cent).
Wollert, also in Melbourne’s outer north, and Harkness both had house price median rises of 9.1 per cent.
Top 20 house price median rises
Suburb Median YoY 5 years
Whittlesea $599,000 15.10% 57.60%
Cairnlea $780,000 11.40% 60.30%
Brookfield $487,750 9.60% 48.70%
Gisborne $760,000 9.40% 52.00%
Harkness $480,000 9.10% 54.30%
Wollert $600,000 9.10% 67.10%
Bacchus Marsh $500,000 8.70% 42.90%
Kurunjang $439,500 8.50% 51.70%
Eynesbury $555,000 7.50% 41.40%
Wallan $505,000 7.40% 44.30%
Officer $576,500 7.30% 53.70%
Cranbourne North $585,000 7.20% 58.10%
Burnside Heights $635,000 7.10% 47.30%
Tarneit $563,450 7.10% 52.30%
Beaconsfield $752,500 6.70% 47.50%
Lynbrook $640,000 6.60% 50.20%
Truganina $565,250 6.60% 59.90%
Belgrave $676,016 6.10% 59.10%
Taylors Hill $725,000 5.80% 48.70%
Wyndham Vale $480,000 5.50% 65.5%
Source: Domain House Price Report – March 2019

First-home buyer incentives have helped buffer the fringes from median falls with buyers looking to purchase for less than $600,000 to qualify for stamp duty exemptions.
Cheaper prices for homes in Melbourne’s west were the main reason David Dickson and his partner Petra Foulds bought a three-bedroom home in Kurunjang, moving in two weeks ago.
Kurunjang was in the top 10 suburbs to rise with a median boost of 8.5 per cent to $439,500.
Mr Dickson works as an aircraft engineer while Ms Foulds is a retail manager at Westfield in Airport West and their home is close to where both work. The home is a long-term investment allowing them to plan for the future – including starting a family.
“We’re planning to be here for the next 10 to 15 years – maybe even longer,” Mr Dickson said.
Dr Powell said while they were holding up, the good run in median prices on the fringes may not last.
“I think there is a delayed impact on these outer areas as the first-home buyers’ initiatives [stamp duty concessions] in Victoria have supported demand and growth but this will wear off over time,” Dr Powell said.
“Especially since the tightening lending criteria is making it harder to get finance for a home.”
There were already signs with some outer suburbs showing drops in prices.
The first-home buyer-focused suburbs of Clyde, Cranbourne and Kilsyth in the outer east had median house prices which dropped by between 0.9 per cent and 5.7 per cent over the past year.
The number of loan commitments from first-home buyers had also started to cool between 2018 and 2019, with 10 per cent fewer buyers taking out loans, according to the latest ABS data.
“A wider slowdown in home loan commitments across all buyer segments is likely to continue to have an impact,” Dr Powell said.