译者王为

文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明

Is There Too Much Business Debt?

Anna Kovner

and Brandon Zborowski

By many measures nonfinancial corporate debt has been increasing as a share of GDP and assets since 2010. As the May Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report explained, high business debt can be a financial stability risk because heavily indebted corporations may need to cut back spending more sharply when shocks occur. Further, when businesses cannot repay their loans, financial institutions and investors incur losses. In this post, we review measures of corporate leverage in the United States. Although corporate debt has soared, concerns about debt growth are mitigated in part by higher corporate cash flows.

多个指标显示，2010年以来美国非金融企业的债务总额占美国GDP和企业总资产的比重一直在上升。正如美联储5月份金融稳定报告所解释的，美国企业的高负债情况有可能会对金融稳定构成风险，因为债台高筑的企业在遭到危机冲击之时可能不得不大幅削减开支。此外，如果企业无法偿付债务，金融机构和投资者都将遭受损失。本文将回顾一下美国企业加杠杆的过程。尽管美国企业的债务总量大幅飙升，但债务增长引发的担忧在一定程度上被强劲的现金流入状况所抵消。

Corporate Debt Is at a Fifty-Year High Ratio to GDP

美国企业债务占GDP的比率升至50年来最高

After falling in the initial recovery from the Great Recession, corporate debt to GDP has increased to its highest level in fifty years. This measure of aggregate leverage, which may point to concerns about financial stability, has been proposed by the BIS as it can be compared across countries. In the chart below, we show the growth of nonfinancial corporate debt as a percentage of GDP from the Financial Accounts of the United States, statistics that are intended to show a comprehensive view of U.S. income and saving.

美国企业总负债占GDP的比率在2008年经济大衰退后的最初复苏阶段曾一度出现下行，但该比率目前已升至近50年来最高。按照国际清算银行的说法，该比率作为衡量整个国家企业杠杆率的总体指标，应能反映市场对各国金融体系稳定状况的担忧程度。下图为美国非金融企业债务与美国GDP的比率变动趋势，数据来源于全美金融账户的余额变动情况，该统计数据旨在全面反映美国收入和存款账户的情况。

Is There Too Much Business Debt?

But Corporate Profits Are Also High

但与此同时美国企业的利润数也在创新高
Along with corporate debt, corporate profits have also been higher as a share of GNP since 2008. The next chart adds a line that divides corporate debt by total corporate profits instead of by GDP. We use a measure of corporate profits without Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj) (gold line). Since the IVA and CCAdj are not cash expenses, but national accounts concepts (see NIPA handbook chapter 11), a profits measure without these adjustments better captures the profits available to corporations. While there has been an increase in debt to profits since 2012, this ratio has been falling since 2016 and is well below the fifty-year highs in the debt-to-GDP ratio (blue line).
与企业债务的情况相类似，2008年以来，美国企业盈利额与GDP的比率也在上升。下图是在上图的基础上，加了一个指标，也就是用美国企业总负债除以企业总盈利而不是GDP，这个企业盈利总额不含存货估值调整和资本消耗补偿。由于存货估值调整和资本消耗补偿不体现在现金流量表上，而是国民经济账户核算体系中的概念，因此不含上述调整项的利润指标可以更好地反映企业的盈利状况。图中显示，2012年以来美国企业总负债与总利润的比率呈现上升态势，但2016年以来该比率出现回落，并远低于蓝线表示的企业总负债与GDP的比率在过去50年中的最高值。

资本消耗补偿是用来弥补在特定年份中消耗的资本的，是这个年度中创造的新资本的一部分，通常也被称为折旧。总投资额和净投资额的差额就是资本消耗补偿。

Is There Too Much Business Debt?

Does Firm-Level Data Tell a Different Story of Debt and Profits?

企业层面的债务与利润数据会得出不同的结论吗？
While aggregate data offer an important picture of total U.S. leverage, debt and profits are not fungible across companies. An economy with 50 percent highly levered companies and 50 percent unlevered companies has the same aggregate leverage as an economy with 100 percent companies at a medium leverage level, but is likely more vulnerable to a negative shock. Therefore we turn to SEC filings data on public companies collected by Compustat to examine time trends in corporate profits and leverage. The advantage of this approach is that we can measure the distribution of leverage in addition to the aggregate level.

整体的债务比率指标描绘的是美国总债务杠杆、总债务和总盈利方面的情况，并没有反映各家企业的具体情况。如果A经济体中50%公司的债务杠杆率高于均值，另外50%公司的债务杠杆率低于均值，那么该经济体的总体杠杆率与所有公司的杠杆率均处于均值水平的经济体B的总体杠杆率相等，但A经济体对抗负面冲击的能力有可能会更弱一些。因此，我们看看Compustat搜集的美国各家上市公司向美国证监会递交的财务数据来了解美国企业盈利和财务杠杆的变动趋势。这样做的好处是可以看清楚美国企业杠杆率的具体分布情况，而不仅仅是整体情况。

Compustat是标准普尔公司旗下的企业财务数据库。

Our preferred measure of leverage relates debt to pre-interest expense cash flow, using earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) as a proxy for cash flow. The ratio of debt to EBITDA can be thought of as the number of years that it would take a corporation to pay off its debt in full, if it did not make any capital expenditures and excluding interest costs.

我们比较喜欢用来衡量债务杠杆情况的指标是企业总负债与息税摊销折旧前利润的比率，该比率可被理解为一家公司在没有资本支出和利息支出的情况下完全还清债务所需的年限。

The chart below plots the sum of debt to the sum of EBITDA for the 3,000 largest nonfinancial public companies (blue line) as well as the 75th percentile of the ratio calculated for each company (red line). Both the aggregate and the 75th percentile have shot up since the financial crisis, reflecting high growth in particular at the riskiest public corporations. However, like the aggregate pattern, some of this debt growth appears to be subsiding more recently as corporate earnings growth has been strong.

下图中的蓝线为美国最大的3000家非金融企业上市公司的总负债与息税摊销折旧前利润总额的比率，而红线为对各家公司的该比率指标进行高低排名后位居第75百分位的数值。不管是全体公司的比率值还是排名为75%的比例值均在2008年金融危机后大幅上扬，说明美国上市公司尤其是风险度最高的上市公司的债务杠杆率呈增长态势。但近年来，这两类指标快速增长的状况似乎有些改善，因美国企业的盈利增速相当强劲。

Is There Too Much Business Debt?

Another way of examining the distribution of debt in the economy is to cumulate the share of firms at each debt/EBITDA ratio. Looking back over the last ten, twenty, and thirty years, the distributions of debt to EBITDA look very similar, with about 12 percent of firms with debt above 6x EBITDA in 1988, 1998 and 2018 and about 9 percent of such firms in 2008, although there are more companies with negative EBITDA in 2018 (not included in the distribution).

另一个衡量经济中债务分布情况的方法是将企业总负债与息税摊销折旧前利润的倍数分成各个档，然后看一下身处各档的企业数量的占比。如果回顾一下过去10年，20年和30年的情况，企业负债与息税摊销折旧前利润的比率分布情况看起来很相似，在1988、1998和2018年有大约12%的企业，在2008年约9%的企业的总负债与息税摊销折旧前利润的倍数达到6倍以上，尽管2018年有更多企业的总负债与息税摊销折旧前利润的倍数为负值。

Do Other Leverage Measures for Public Companies Behave Differently?

其他衡量美国上市公司债务杠杆的指标有什么不同表现吗？
In the chart below, we plot nonfinancial corporate debt to book assets (blue line) and market capitalization (red line) as well as the interest coverage ratio—defined as the ratio of EBITDA to interest expense (gold line). Debt to book assets may overstate leverage, if book values are less than market values. This measure decreased immediately after the Great Recession, but has grown since 2014. In contrast, debt to market capitalization may understate leverage if market values are unusually high relative to current and future earnings. This measure decreased to below its historical median relative to market capitalization due to the historically high levels of the equity market. Finally, the interest coverage ratio measures corporations’ ability to pay their interest expense. Despite recent increases in interest rates, this measure remains above its historical median due to strong earnings.

下图中，蓝线为美国非金融企业债务与账面资产的比率，红线为美国非金融企业债务与公司市值的比率，数值在左轴；黄线为利息覆盖率，即息税摊销折旧前的利润数与债务利息总额的比率，数值在右轴。如果账面资产的金额小于公司市值，那么总负债与账面资产的比率数值有可能夸大了公司债务的杠杆率，该指标在2008年经济危机爆发后立即出现回落，但在2014年以后再次回升。与此相反的是，如果一家公司的市值与该公司当前和未来的盈利额之间的比率高得非同寻常，那么总负债与公司市值的比率则有可能低估了公司债务的杠杆率。如果股市的估值水平处于历史高位，那么总负债与公司市值的比率有可能降至历史均值以下。最后，利息覆盖率衡量的是企业偿还利息的能力。尽管美国的利率水平在近期出现上升，但该指标因美国企业盈利大增而仍居于历史均值的上方。

Is There Too Much Business Debt?

What Are Corporations Doing With All This Debt?

美国企业是如何使用这些负债资金的？
One concern about leverage booms is that they spark inefficient investment. While some of the increase in corporate debt has been used to fund capital expenditures, these have not been the primary use of higher leverage. Instead, changes in debt, normalized by assets, are associated with more acqusitions, stock buybacks and dividends rather than with increasing capital expenditures or growth in intangible assets.

企业债务杠杆偏高问题引发的一个担忧是负债过多将导致一些无效投资。企业债务中有一部分增量被用于满足资本开支的需要，但这不是加杠杆资金的最主要用途。加杠杆资金的最主要用途是用于有形资产方面，比如搞更多的并购、股票回购和分红派息，而不是用于增加或购置无形资产。

Is There Too Much Nonfinancial Corporate Leverage?
At the extreme, if all debt were being used for stock buybacks or dividends to equity holders, and the changes we see are simply a change to capital structure, is this an additional risk to the economy? Jensen (1986) argued that higher debt is good for efficiency because it reduces agency costs by aligning the interests of managers with equity holders. However, in a downturn, Myers (1977) described the debt overhang problem in which a firm with too much debt cannot raise additional debt to fund profitable new projects, because the profits will be appropriated by existing debt holders.

假设一种极端情况，所有的企业债务都被用于回购股票或用于分红，这只会给公司的资本结构带来改变，对美国经济来讲，这会是另一个风险点吗？Jensen在1986年曾说过多一些债务有助于提高企业经营效率，因为债务增加会让企业管理层的利益与股东的利益相一致，从而降低代理成本。但是Myers在1977年阐述，在经济下行期间，债务过高的企业将无法筹集到新的资金来为有盈利潜力的新项目进行融资，因为利润都被现在的债权人分走了。

代理成本理论由詹森(Jensen)和麦克林(Meckling)提出，按照定义，代理成本可化分为三部分：①委托人的监督成本，即委托人激励和监控代理人，以图使后者为前者利益尽力的成本；②代理人的担保成本，即代理人用以保证不采取损害委托人行为的成本，以及如果采用了那种行为，将给予赔偿的成本；③剩余损失，它是委托人因代理人代行决策而产生的一种价值损失，等于代理人决策和委托人在假定具有与代理人相同信息和才能情况下自行效用最大化决策之间的差异①。显然，①和②是制定、实施和治理契约的实际成本，③是在契约最优但又不完全被遵守、执行时的机会成本。