上接1~9段

10.Of course, the most conspicuous example of this ignorance gap is the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the Great Recession. “Why did nobody notice it?” Queen Elizabeth famously asked. The answer is actually fairly easy.

11.Economists and others are conditioned by their own experiences, and a widespread financial panic in a rich society was not among those experiences. It hadn’t happened in their lifetimes and couldn’t happen. We had solved that problem through sensible government regulation and sophisticated financial management.

12.So it seemed. In reality, the belief that we had outlawed a financial panic rationalized more risk-taking behavior, which ultimately led to a financial panic.

➤ conspicuous adjective

 UK /kənˈspɪk.ju.əs/ US  /kənˈspɪk.ju.əs/

very noticeable or attracting attention, often in a way that is not wanted

显眼的；醒目的；显着的

➤ recessionnoun 

 UK  /rɪˈseʃ.ən/ US  /rɪˈseʃ.ən/

 a period when the economy of a country is not successful and conditions for businessare bad

（经济）衰退期,萧条

➤ conditioned 有条件的,受制约的；习惯于...的

➤ conditionnoun

 UK  /kənˈdɪʃ.ən/ US  /kənˈdɪʃ.ən/

 the particular state that something or someone is in

状况；状态

Mum~q~s still got our pram - it~q~s very old, but it~q~s in perfect condition.妈妈还留着我们的婴儿车——虽然很旧了，但仍然完好。

conditions [ plural ]

the physical situation that someone or something is in and affected by

物质条件；情况；实际环境

weather conditions天气条件

Working conditions here are primitive.这里的工作条件很简陋。

➤ sensibleadjective

 UK /ˈsen.sə.bəl/ US  /ˈsen.sə.bəl/

1.based on or acting on good judgment and practical ideas or understanding

理智的；明智的

a sensible person理智的人

It would be sensible to take an umbrella.带把伞是明智的。

➤ sophisticatedadjective

 UK /səˈfɪs.tɪ.keɪ.tɪd/ US /səˈfɪs.tə.keɪ.t̬ɪd/

1. having a good understanding of the way people behave and/or a good knowledge ofculture and fashion

精于世故的，老练的；见多识广的；很有品位的

2. intelligent or made in a complicated way and therefore able to do complicated tasks

精密的，复杂的；高级的

➤ outlawverb 

 UK /ˈaʊt.lɔː/ US  /ˈaʊt.lɑː/

to make something illegal or unacceptable

使成为非法；禁止；取缔

➤ rationalizeverb

  UK  /ˈræʃ.ən.əl.aɪz/ US /ˈræʃ.ən.əl.aɪz/

 to try to find reasons to explain your behaviour, decisions, etc.

合理地解释（行为、决定等），为…找出合理的理由，使合理化；就…辩解

10.当然，无知差距最明显的例子就是2008年到20009年间的金融危机和大萧条时期。伊丽莎白女王曾经问了一个著名的问题，为什么没有人注意到它呢？答案实际上非常简单。

11.经济学家和我们其他人受他们自己的经历所限，而发生在一个富裕社会的普遍金融恐慌是不存在于这些经历之中的。它在他们的一生中没有发生过，也不会发生。我们已经通过合理的政府管制和高明的财务管理解决了那个问题。

12.表面看起来确是如此。实际上，相信我们已经取缔了金融恐慌这种看法使更多的冒险行为合理化，这最终将导致金融恐慌。

13.The larger cause of the ignorance gap is the very complexity and obscurity of a $20 trillion economy (the United States) or an $85 trillion economy (the world). To say it is changing in detailed and often-unanticipated ways is simply to affirm that mere mortals, including economists, have never been very good at predicting the future.What I think can be held against economists — not all, but many — is that they exaggerate what they know and how much they can influence the economy. The aim is usually to gain and retain political relevance and power. But the result is often disappointment, as government performance falls short of promises. A little more humility might be in order.

➤ complexitynoun

 UK /kəmˈplek.sə.ti/ US /kəmˈplek.sə.t̬i/

 the state of having many parts and being difficult to understand or find an answerto

复杂性

 ➤ obscuritynoun 

 UK /əbˈskjʊə.rə.ti/ US  /əbˈskjʊr.ə.t̬i/

the state of being not clear and difficult to understand or see

费解，晦涩；模糊，朦胧

➤ anticipateverb 

 UK  /ænˈtɪs.ɪ.peɪt/ US  /ænˈtɪs.ə.peɪt/

 to imagine or expect that something will happen

预期，预计，期望；预料

➤ affirmverb 

 UK  /əˈfɜːm/ US /əˈfɝːm/ formal

to state something as true

证实；确认；断言

➤ mortalnoun

 UK  /ˈmɔː.təl/ US  /ˈmɔːr.t̬əl/

an ordinary person, rather than a god or a special, important conditions economy financial good uk